More than £50 million of planned casino investment across Britain could be cancelled or scaled back if ministers raise Machine Games Duty on certain machines from 20% to 40%.

The warning came from the Betting and Gaming Council on Friday, October 2, 2026. The trade body says the threatened investment forms part of more than £200 million in plans from four major casino operators.

The £50 million figure is an industry estimate based on investment plans, not an independently verified government forecast.

Projects in Bristol, Cardiff and London

The BGC identified several projects that could face pressure:

  • £8 million planned for Bristol.
  • £5 million planned for Cardiff.
  • £5 million planned for Bournemouth.
  • Genting’s proposed redevelopment of the Trocadero in London’s West End.
  • Additional planned investment in Greater Manchester, without a full project-by-project breakdown.

The BGC said the London redevelopment could create hundreds of jobs. It did not publish a full breakdown of the £50 million it says could be affected.

Grainne Hurst, the BGC’s chief executive, said the proposed increase would undermine casino modernisation reforms. Those reforms were intended to unlock private investment and support local economies.

The 40% rate is not law

Machine Games Duty is charged on net takings from qualifying machine games. HM Revenue and Customs lists the rates for the 2026 to 2027 tax year as:

  • 5% for Type 1 machines.
  • 20% for Type 2 machines.
  • 25% for Type 3 machines.

The 40% rate is a proposal from the Social Market Foundation for Category B machines. The government has not announced a final decision to impose it on casinos or other land-based venues.

The 40% rate already applying from April 1, 2026 concerns Remote Gaming Duty on online gaming profits, not Machine Games Duty on land-based machines.

That distinction is central to the dispute. A new 40% Machine Games Duty rate would require a further government decision and legislation. Its final scope and effective date remain unknown.

Genting closure adds pressure

On October 1, 2026, Genting Casinos confirmed the closure of its Coventry venue. The company said the site was no longer commercially viable after increases in employment, property, energy, compliance and gaming-tax costs.

Genting also warned that a further rise in Machine Games Duty could lead to more closures, job losses and reduced investment in British towns and cities.

The Coventry closure is a company decision already taken. The wider £50 million figure remains an industry estimate of possible future damage, not a confirmed loss.

Tax revenue versus investment

Supporters of a higher rate argue that Category B machines create greater gambling harm and should generate more tax. The Social Market Foundation estimates that doubling the duty could raise between £275 million and £458 million a year.

The BGC disputes the assumptions behind that estimate. It says a higher rate could make regulated venues unviable, weaken high streets and push some activity towards illegal operators.

The trade body says British casinos recorded about 14 million customer visits in 2025 and generated £515 million in tax. The BGC figures include the wider economic contribution it attributes to the sector. They are not a government measure of Machine Games Duty alone.

For casino operators, the debate is about whether higher tax revenue would outweigh the risk of cancelled investment and venue closures. For ministers, the key decision is still pending: no 40% Machine Games Duty rate has been enacted.