Betfred founder Fred Done has warned that a proposed increase in Machine Games Duty from 20% to 40% could force the closure of 495 shops and put 2,575 jobs at risk. The proposal has not been legislated.

Done told the Financial Times that higher machine taxes could accelerate the decline of betting shops on British high streets. He said the impact could leave retail betting without a viable business model by 2030, according to iGaming Business.

Betfred's figures are company projections, not a government impact assessment or a confirmed closure plan.

What Betfred says could change

Betfred operates about 1,094 retail shops across the United Kingdom, based on the reported interview. Done's forecast would affect roughly 45% of that estate if the proposed tax increase went ahead.

  • 495 shops could close.
  • 2,575 jobs could be lost.
  • About £67 million in tax revenue could be lost, according to Done's estimate.
  • Betfred has already closed 132 UK shops after the Remote Gambling Duty increase introduced in April 2026.

Those figures are Betfred's estimates. They do not confirm that the closures will happen or establish a government position on the proposal.

The tax proposal is not law

HM Revenue and Customs lists Machine Games Duty at 5% for lower-rate machines, 20% for standard machines and 25% for higher-rate machines. Its official rates page does not list a 40% Machine Games Duty rate.

The proposed 40% figure is a policy option under discussion before the Autumn Budget. It is not an enacted duty, a licence condition or a Gambling Commission enforcement measure.

The distinction matters because the confirmed gambling tax changes concern remote gambling. Remote Gaming Duty rose from 21% to 40% on 1 April 2026. A 25% remote betting rate is due to apply from 1 April 2027. Bets placed through self-service terminals in licensed betting premises remain subject to the 15% rate.

Why betting shops are exposed

Betfred's retail model includes fixed-odds betting terminals and other machine-based gambling. Done said those machines account for about half of shop profits. That would make a rise in machine taxation a direct threat to the economics of individual shops.

The Betting and Gaming Council has also opposed doubling Machine Games Duty. In July, the trade body said the proposal could affect betting shops, bingo clubs, casinos and other licensed venues. It cited possible consequences for employment and local high streets.

The council's position is an industry representation, not independent proof of the projected closures. The government has not published a final decision on the proposed increase.

What happens next

The next formal stage would be a government announcement in the Autumn Budget. Any increase would then require legislation, a commencement date and rules covering the affected machine categories.

Until then, Betfred's figures remain a warning about possible commercial consequences, not a confirmed timetable for shop closures. The dispute puts jobs, high-street premises, tax receipts and the future size of Britain's regulated betting-shop network at the centre of the Budget debate.