On 28 October 2026, the Gambling Commission reported that people with detected payments to illegal gambling operators were more likely to score in the problem-gambling category than licensed consumers in the same dataset.

The regulator also found no substantial drop in licensed gambling activity after people first had a detected payment to an illegal operator.

The findings show a sharp association in this dataset, but they do not establish that illegal gambling caused higher harm scores.

A striking gap, with limits

The Problem Gambling Severity Index is a survey measure of gambling-related problems. A score of 8 or higher falls in its problem-gambling category.

  • 45% of people with detected transactions to illegal operators scored 8 or higher.
  • That compares with 6% of licensed gambling consumers in the dataset. People who gambled only on lotteries were excluded from that comparison.

The figures describe people in the study, not the whole population of Great Britain.

Illegal play did not replace licensed play

The Commission compared licensed gambling transactions before and after a person’s first detected payment to an unlicensed operator. It found no substantial decrease in licensed activity afterwards.

That suggests licensed and illegal gambling can coexist in the data. The study does not show that people switched from licensed sites or that illegal operators caused them to do so.

What the analysis cannot prove

The Commission used anonymised bank transactions from British residents linked to survey responses. It published the work as research, not as a new rule, licence condition or enforcement decision.

The regulator says the sample is not nationally representative and may miss some payments to illegal sites. The analysis cannot establish that using illegal sites caused higher Problem Gambling Severity Index scores. Nor can it estimate the illegal market’s total size.

The results point to an association, not a proven cause or a complete count of illegal gambling in Britain.