Rank Group could face about £35 million in extra annual costs if the UK Government raises Machine Games Duty on certain gaming machines, according to Deutsche Bank analysis published on 23 September 2026.

The estimate covers Rank’s Great Britain venues, including Grosvenor Casinos and Mecca bingo halls. The tax change has not been enacted, and the Government has announced no final decision.

The proposed increase is not law, but Deutsche Bank estimates it could equal a significant share of Rank’s earnings and intensify pressure on land-based venues.

What the proposal would change

Machine Games Duty is charged on the net takings from gaming machines. The current rates are:

  • 20% at the standard rate.
  • 25% for machines with a maximum cost of play above £5.

The proposal examined by Deutsche Bank would raise the rate on Category B machines to 40%.

The idea follows a Social Market Foundation report published on 30 June 2026. The report argued that higher-risk machines should face a higher tax rate.

It estimated that doubling the duty could raise between £275 million and £458 million. That is a policy recommendation, not legislation.

Why Rank is exposed

Deutsche Bank said the potential £35 million charge could equal about 44% of Rank’s forecast 2028 earnings before interest and tax.

After partial mitigation, the charge would represent roughly 17% of nearer-term earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

Rank relies heavily on gaming machines in its land-based operations. The company has said that Machine Games Duty rates are critical to the viability of its UK venues.

Rank has warned that a further increase could lead to closures and lower tax receipts. It closed nine Mecca venues during the financial year ended 30 June 2026.

Rank’s final results linked those closures to commercial viability. They did not attribute them solely to any proposed increase in Machine Games Duty.

The wider industry stakes

The Gambling Commission reported about £2.7 billion in gross gambling yield from gaming machines in Great Britain between April 2025 and March 2026.

Gross gambling yield is the amount operators retain after paying winnings, before operating costs and tax. The figure covers the wider industry. It is not Rank’s revenue and does not measure tax, profit or customer deposits.

Rank said it paid more than £225 million in taxes and duties during the year.

The company argues that higher machine taxation could weaken venue economics, reduce employment and push some customers towards unlicensed or illegal markets.

What happens next

The proposal remains at the policy and analysis stage. Any change would require a Government announcement, the relevant legislative process and an effective date.

For now, the confirmed Great Britain rates remain those published by HM Revenue and Customs for the 2026 to 2027 tax year.

The debate is also moving towards whether the Treasury should tax land-based machines in the same way as online casino products. Remote Gaming Duty on those products has stood at 40% since 1 April 2026.